Health labor growth is fog through measures against immigrants and deception to medical aid

The health sector was a positive point in the economy this year, which represents nearly half of the country’s employment growth. However, economists and experts warn that immigrant policies and provinces to Medicaid can endanger this growth in the future.

From January to August, employers They added 487,000 jobsAccording to the latest non -agricultural salary statements of the Labor Statistics Office. sector Health represents 48 % Out of that ModestWith an increase of about 232,000 jobs, although this sector represents only 11 % of the workforce.

“In terms of employment, health growth enhances the economy,” said Neil Mahouni, Professor of Economics at Stanford University.

According to the economists, President Donald Trump’s measures are threatened against immigration and discounts of public insurance programs to stop this growth. This can generate economic uncertainty and represent an obstacle to Republicans in the legislative elections for the next year. The health sector is unusually dependent on workers born abroad, while a new law reduces federal spending in the medicaid program – which runs about $ 900,000 million a year – can cause Loss of 1.2 million jobs On the national level, according to the initial estimates of the Commonwealth Fund.

In recent years, health growth was more clear in the home care sector, with an increase of about 300,000 jobs, reached 1.82 million Mahouni explained that the workers between August 2019 and August 2025. Because millions of elderly people employ workers to visit and take care of them in their homes. There was also a strong growth in employment in Hospitals Y Medical offices. On the other hand, the housing of the elderly and residential care centers They registered weaker numbers Between 2019 and 2025, this is partly due to the increase in people who prefer to get attention at home.

Some research indicates that health growth does not always benefit the economy. For example, Increase administrative employees In this sector it can raise costs without providing concrete benefits to patients. However, health jobs are considered Stable, often resistant to stagnation. Today, health industry The main source of employment In most states. Even with the growth of employment in the sector, many areas face Lack of workers To meet the increasing demand.

But many economists have warned that recent changes in federal immigration policy and medicaid can mix this growth.

If the measures against the migrants promoted by the Trump administration continue, health organizations may have difficulty finding sufficient employees. “The health sector relies heavily on immigrant workers,” said Alison Sharvastava, an economist at the recruitment laboratory. “It has an important percentage of workers who are not born in the country, so it will be more affected.”

Nearly 18 % of Americans used in the health sector were born in another country, according to data from the 2023 Statistical Office. About 5 % of workers are not citizens, including about 60,000 doctors and surgeons, 117,000 registered nurses and 155,000 home health assistants or personal care providers, as shown in census data.

Many of these workers are legally in the country. The Statistical Office does not specify the number of non -residents who are not authorized to stay in the United States. However, even those who have a legal status, as permanent residents, can be Positive to deportation. The federal government deported about 200,000 people between February and August, a significant increase compared to the previous months, according to what it said. Data obtained by Guardian.

At the same time, some health professionals can decide not to study in the United States or move to the country if they see hostility towards immigrants. The number of migrant visas issued by the United States between March and May wave decreased by about 23,000, or 14 %, compared to the same period in the previous year, according to it. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Data. In addition, border reports are not authorized by the border They have decreased dramatically.

Shrivastava said that the Labor Party actually provides data that shows a continuous demand for doctors by employers ready to support it through the visa care process. But it is not clear that the number of people will accept these offers.

Meanwhile, Congress agreed this summer to what the Republicans called “a wonderful and beautiful law” (A single beautiful invoice work), Which was quickly signed by Trump. This legislation reduces federal spending by about $ 910,000 million over the next ten years, according to what it said. KFF analysis Based on data from the Congress Budget Office.

Medicaid discounts are expected to leave millions without medical insurance in the coming years. Hospitals and housing of old and community health centers will have to do so The absorption of the majority of the cost To serve people without insurance, which may force them to reduce services and employees, or even close.

Discounts can have a significant impact on the labor market. Only California can lose up to 217,000 jobs, of which two -thirds will be in the health sector, according to analysis From the University of California in Berkeley, it was prepared before the final approval of the law.

“This does not necessarily mean that 200,000 people will lose their job,” he said. Miranda DietzThe temporary director of the health center of the work center. “Some people will lose their jobs, and in other cases, employment growth will be slower than expected.”

Added to that Trump I launched the official recently This statistical field of the Ministry of Labor, which has given concerns about the potential politicization of work data.

It was not clear yet – or yes – immigration measures and provinces to Medicaid will affect healthy employment, but there are already signs of possible cooling. Federal data showed A significant decrease in health offers for the health sector And social assistance in July. also, In fact data It reflects a decrease in some health fields, although Laura Ulrich, the director of economic research in North America, said that employment publications in general are still higher than before the epidemic.

graph: Monthly job opportunities for health care remain high

At the present time, labor growth is expected to remain high, especially among nursing specialists, medical assistants and home health assistants, according to what it said. Expectations of the work statistics office.

Many health jobs require years of higher education, but they provide a good reward. For example, family doctors usually earn more than 240,000 dollars General and nurses registered About 94,000 dollars.

Joshua far, president Sacramento state department From the California Nursing Association, he said he was “moderately optimistic” regarding obtaining a job as a nurse when he went out in December. At this time, the clinical rotation that gives it practical experience to face long working days.

He mentioned much that hospitals in their area are working to expand their capabilities, while some experienced nurses leave more experience for fatigue after the roaming epidemic, which generates new vacancies. “I think the most important thing now is to be aware of all job request courses,” he said.

Healthy functions that require less training are usually paid much less. The average annual income of about 4.4 million people working as home health assistants and personal care providers were some $ 35,000 a year In the past, a salary is similar to a salary NawadelAccording to federal data.

Ulrich said health growth in health has been particularly benefited from women. About 80 % of people working in the health and social aid sector are women A recent recent study. The investigation has found that workers represent more than a million new jobs in the past two years.

Sherfastava said that the sector is resistant, because the Americans do not see health care as luxury: they pay it at good and bad times. It is expected to register the cost of medical insurance More In at least five years. In addition, health spending usually focuses on the elderly, a group that accelerates as members of the age of “children’s mutation”. The number of people who are 65 years old or older 34 million In 1995 a 61 million In 2024.

“There are many of these healthy functions to serve a group of elderly people who are growing quickly,” explained. Ulrich. “So it is not surprising that we see growth there. But what is surprising is the extent of its inconsistency.”

Philip Reese is a data report specialist and associate professor of journalism at California State University in Sacramento.

This story was produced by KFF Health NewsWhich is published California HealthyinIndependent editorial service for California Health Care Corporation.