Development growth in health care is cloudy due to immigration campaign, medicaid discounts

The healthcare sector is a bright point in the economy this year, as it leads nearly half of the country’s employment gains, but economists and experts say that the immigration campaign and medical discounts waving on the horizon pose a threat to future job growth.

Employers He added 487,000 jobs From January to August, according to the latest data of non -agricultural salary statements from the Labor Statistics Office. Health care sector It represents 48 % Out of that Fad growthExpanding about 232,000 jobs, although the sector uses only about 11 % of workers.

“On the side of the work, health care growth is driving the economy,” said Nil Mahouni, a professor of economics at Stanford.

Economists say that the immigration campaign for President Donald Trump and discounts on public insurance programs threaten to threaten this growth. They can add uncomfortable economy and cause opposite winds to the Republican Party in the renewal elections next year. The healthcare sector is unusually dependent on workers born abroad, while it is expected to be a new law to spend a federal spending on the Medicaid 900 billion dollars program, based on an initial version of the bill, to provoke its loss 1.2 million jobs At the level of the country, according to the Commonwealth Fund.

In recent years, the growth of health care jobs has been more clear in the home health sector, as it has increased by about 300,000 jobs 1.82 million Mahouni said that the workers from August 2019 to August 2025, where millions of older residents employ workers to visit and take care of them. The growth of jobs was also strong In hospitals and Doctors ’offices. Elderly care homes and housing homes Spread the weaker numbers From 2019 to 2025 amid an increase in the number of people who use care at home.

Some research indicates that the growth of health care functions is not always good for the economy. For example, an increasing number of healthcare officials may raise healthcare costs Without providing a lot of interest For patients. However, health care functions are considered Stable and often stagnant, And the healthcare industry is now The best employer in most states. Even with the growth of jobs in the sector, many places It remains desperate For health care workers to meet the increasing demand.

But many economists have said that the changes in recent federal policy on immigration and medicaid may decrease job growth.

If the immigration campaign continues by the Trump administration, it may become difficult for health care organizations to find enough people to employ them. “Healthcare as an industry that is largely dependent on migrant work,” said Alison Sharvastava, an economist at the recruitment laboratory. “It has a large share of the non -original workforce, so it will be affected more.”

About 18 % of Americans working in health care abroad were born, according to the data of the Statistics Office for 2023. About 5 % of health care workers were not citizens, including about 60,000 doctors and surgeons, 117,000 registered nurses, and 155,000 home care assistants or personal care.

Many of these workers are legally here. The Statistical Office does not follow the number of non -citizens who live in the United States with permission. But even those who have a legal status, including permanent population, may be Positive to deportation. The federal government deported about 200,000 people from February to August, a significant increase from the previous months, according to what it said The data obtained by the guardian.

At the same time, some health care workers may choose not to study or move to America if they see that they are hostile to migrants. The number of migrant visas issued by the United States from March to May decreased by 23,000, or 14 %, from the same period last year, Foreign Ministry data appears. In addition, attempts to cross unauthorized borders were reported Decline.

Shrivastava said that job spreading data actually shows the continued strong demand for doctors among employers ready to help with the visa care process. But it is not clear whether people will take them on offers.

Meanwhile, Congress approved this summer what the Republicans called.A single beautiful invoice work“Which was rapidly signed by Trump. This bill makes about $ 910 billion in federal spending cuts over 10 years away, according to KFF analysis Data from the Congress Budget Office.

Medicaid discounts are expected to cause millions without health insurance in the coming years. Hospitals, elderly care houses and community health centers must Abunding more cost It is treated by non -insured persons by reducing services and employees, or completely closing them.

Discounts can have a significant impact on the labor market. California can only see up to 217,000 jobs, including two -thirds in the health care sector, according to it. analysis By the University of California-Birkeli’s work center before the draft law was completed and signed.

“This does not necessarily mean that 200,000 people will lose their job,” he said. Miranda DietzThe temporary director of the healthcare program at the work center. “Some people will lose their jobs, and in some cases, job growth will not be at the expected speed.”

The complexity of the image is Trump The last shooting The official who headed the statistical branch of the Ministry of Labor, which led to fears that job data will not be free of political influence.

It is not clear when – or if – immigration procedures and discounts in the field of medical care will affect the health care sector, but there are signs of possible softening. Federal data showed a A significant decrease in job opportunities In the health care and social assistance sector in July. In reality Job publishing data It also shows a decrease in some areas of health care, but Laura Ulrich, Director of Economic Research in North America in the recruitment laboratory already, indicated that the publications remain higher than PrepandICY levels.

At the present time, job growth is expected to remain high, especially among nurses practitioners, doctors and home health assistants, according to Bls expectations.

Many health care functions require years of higher education but lead to high salaries, with family doctors usually More than 240,000 dollars per year And the nurses are usually recorded About 94,000 dollars per year.

Joshua Legane, President Separate Sacramento Among the California Nursing Association, he said he was “optimistic about” that he will quickly get a job as a registered nurse when he graduates in December. He said that he completes the clinical rotation of the nursing that gives him experience in the real world that would put him in long transformations.

Lejano said that hospitals in his area expanded their energy, while some veteran nurses leave the profession due to the fatigue of the roaming epidemic, which creates holes. “At the present time, I think the big thing is just staying at the top of all the sessions,” he said.

Health care functions that do not require much training tend to pay much less. The average annual profits of the United States were about 4.4 million home health assistants About $ 35,000 Last year, which is almost equivalent to paying a price Niles and NadlasFederal data appears.

Ulrich said the growth in health care functions was especially useful for women. Almost 80 % of workers in the field of health care and social assistance from females, according to another Really study. The research found that workers represent more than a million new health care jobs in the past two years.

Sherfastava said that this sector is flexible, because the Americans in general do not view health care as a good luxury: they pay for good and bad times. The costs of health insurance on the right path for it The biggest jump In at least five years. Also, health care spending often focuses on the elderly and the elderly, a group that grows dramatically with the era of children’s children. The number of Americans increased 65 or greater than 34 million In 1995 to 61 million In 2024.

“Many of these health care functions to support the increasing population of the elderly Americans,” Ulrich said. “This is not surprising to see growth there. But I think what is surprising is its balance.”

Phillip Reese is a data reporting and associate professor of journalism at California State University.

This article was produced by KFF Health NewsWhich is published California HealthyinIndependent editorial service for California Health Care Corporation.